AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher at the moment. They closed Tuesday with nearby contracts 1 to 2 1/4 cent in the red, coming back from sharp early morning losses. December posted a new life of contract low at $3.60 on Tuesday, while closing 15 1/2 cents off that low. US weather and trade uncertainty pressured the market lower. More rains fell throughout the Corn Belt overnight, and are expected today. Monday's crop progress report showed conditions in IA up 4 to 404, with IN up 3 and IL steady. NE was down 1, with MO 11 points lower. The weekly EIA report will be released on this morning.


Soybean futures are fractionally higher so far this morning. They saw most contracts settle a sharp 19 to 20 1/2 cents lower on Tuesday, rebounding to close 45+ cents off the lows in the front months. The low for nearby July hit $8.41 1/2, the lowest price for continuous front month futures since December 2008. Front Month soy meal was down just $1/ton, with soy oil 72 points lower. The selling pressure was mainly from President Trump threatening to add an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods in response to China's retaliatory tariffs on Friday. Expected rains this week and already above average condition added some fuel to the fire. Soybean progress is well above normal for this time of year, with MI the only state to lag their average for emergence. Condition ratings in IL, MO, and NE ratings were down 7 points, with MN 2 points lower. Ratings in IA were up 4, with IN 3 points higher.


Wheat futures are currently 7 to 8 cents higher, since ending the Tuesday session with 12 to 16 1/2 cent losses in most contracts. Pressure came from higher spring wheat conditions on Monday’s report and a somewhat fast paced winter wheat harvest so far. The winter wheat crop is 65% harvested in TX, with OK at 73% and KS 23% complete as of Sunday, all well ahead of normal. NASS tallied condition ratings up 4 in KS, with TX 20 points higher and OK down 1. Spring Wheat ratings were higher in every state, with ND up 17 points. Taiwan is looking for 95,350 MT of US wheat, with the tender to close next Tuesday. Japan is seeking 91,188 MT of Wheat from Australia and the US, with the tender to close on Thursday and 65,943 sought from the US. Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Romanian wheat in their tender on Tuesday.


Live cattle futures finished the day with 22.5 cent to $1.25 gains. Feeder cattle futures were up 65 to 77.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was up 20 cents from the previous day at $141.48 on June 18. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.01 to $219.70, with Select boxes $1.90 lower at $202.30. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was shown at 238,000 head through Tuesday by the USDA. That is even with last week and 3,000 head above last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction has a total of 2,125 head for sale. A Reuters survey shows expectations ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report (released at 2:00 p.m. CDT) are for May placements to be down 4.4% from last year at 2.026 million head.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were down $1.70 to $1.85 in the nearby contracts on Turnaround Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.42 to $82.86 on June 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was reported at $84.71 in the Tuesday PM report, up 30 cents. The belly, picnic, and ham primal cuts were reported lower. The national base carcass price was up 34 cents on Tuesday afternoon, averaging $83.16. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 863,000 head so far this week. That is down 30,000 head from last week on lower Monday slaughter but up 2,000 head from a year ago.


Cotton futures are rebounding so far on Wednesday, with gains of 101 to 181 in the nearby contracts. They posted sharp losses in most contracts on Tuesday, with nearby July down the limit. Today will have expanded limits of 500 points. Selling pressure was from Monday’s fresh news on the trade conflict front that President Trump is threatening another round of tariffs on Chinese goods. The US dollar index was also 250 points higher on the day. Monday’s conditions ratings report showed TX was down 18 points to 273, with GA up 3 points. The Cotlook A index was down 260 points from day prior at 98.85 cents/lb on June 18. The weekly AWP was updated to 82.99 cents/lb for this week, good through Thursday.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353