AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is so far confirming thoughts of a good corn crop, at least on far edges of the Corn Belt. It started on Monday, with SD reported at 178 bpa and OH at 179.6 bpa both above their respective 3-year averages. They are traveling through NE, IN, and parts if IL today. The DTN Digital crop tour put US national average yield at 174.99 bpa. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report put the corn crop at 85% dough stage (72% avg) and 44% dented (26% avg) as of August 19. NC and CO were the only states to lag the normal pace for denting. Condition ratings were down 5 points on the Brugler500 index, with gd/ex ratings 2% lower to 78%. This is a typical decline for mid-August. Most of the Corn Belt states were steady to lower, with IL and MN down 3, IA 4 lower and the Dakota down sharply.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.59 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.73 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.85 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.92 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 5 to 6 cents in the red at midday. Nearby soy meal is down $2/ton, with soy oil 6 points lower. The USDA, through their daily reporting system, indicated that 250,000 MT of 18/19 soy meal was sold to unknown destinations. Results from Monday’s leg for the Pro Framer Tour in OH and SD show soybean pod counts above average for those areas. The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report indicated that 91% of the US soybean crop was setting pods vs. the average of 83%. All of the 18 reported states were shown at a faster pace than the average except MI. Crop ratings were down 1% to 65% gd/ex, while the Brugler500 Index lost 2 points to 367. Conditions in IA were down 4, with MN 11 points lower, SD down 12 and ND 18 lower. Most of the other major states showed steady or slightly better ratings.

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.76, down 5 3/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.87 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $9.00, down 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.11, down 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal is at $326.20, down $2.00

Sep 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.48, down $0.06

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing losses of 11 to 13 cents in the nearby winter wheat contracts, with MPLS down 5 to 6 cents. Last night, NASS showed the winter wheat harvest nearly complete at 97%, as the Northern states finish up. Spring wheat harvest is progressing, with 60% of the acres harvested vs. the normal pace of 44% for this date. The spring crop was rated at 74% gd/ex down 1% from last week, with the Brugler500 down 3 to 379. WA was the only state to show improvement, as ND was 5 lower and MN was down 6 points. Japan’s weekly MOA tender is looking for 167,787 MT of Wheat from the US, Australia, and Canada, with 77,261 MT sought from the US. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry estimates that the country harvested 25 MMT of wheat, down 1.6 MMT from a year ago.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.29, down 13 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.36, down 11 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.88 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are currently mixed, with the nearby contracts steady to 25 cents higher and back months lower. Feeder cattle futures are also mixed, with September up a dime and most other contracts lower. The CME feeder cattle index was up 7 cents from the previous day at $149.66. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were down a nickel at $213.93, while Select boxes were up $2.03 at $204.32. USDA FI weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 118,000 head on Monday. That is up steady with the previous week and 1,000 head above the same week in 2017.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $109.325, up $0.250,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $110.625, up $0.175,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $114.750, up $0.175,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.500, down $0.125

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $151.200, up $0.100

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $151.200, down $0.075

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are showing 65 to 75 cent losses in the front months, with deferred contracts steady to 50 cents higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.43 on August 17, to $51.51. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 32 cents from the day prior to $66.86. The rib, picnic, and belly primal cuts were reported lower. The national base hog carcass value was down 64 cents in the Tuesday APM report, with the weighted average @ $40.21. USDA estimated hog slaughter at 456,000 head on Monday. That is 11,000 head below last week and up 31,000 head from this week last year.

Oct 18 Hogs are at $55.825, down $0.650,

Dec 18 Hogs are at $53.500, down $0.725

Feb 19 Hogs are at $60.850, unch,

Cotton

Cotton futures are mostly 40 to 50 points in the green at midday. The US dollar index is weaker again this morning, down 253 points at the moment. NASS reported after the close that 86% of the US cotton crop was setting bolls, matching the average, and 17% of the crop had bolls opening (12% avg). The cotton crop conditions were improved 2% to 42% good/ex, with the Brugler500 Index back up 5 points to 305. Ratings in TX were 6 points higher than the week prior, with GA up 7. KS, MO, and VA were the only states to show deteriorating conditions. The Cotlook A index was down 40 points from the previous day at 91.35 cents/lb on August 17. The weekly AWP was updated to 75.45 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 422 points from the previous week.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 83.55, up 45 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 83.2, up 50 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 83.36, up 49 points

May 19 Cotton is at 83.650, up 42 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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